Just to show that I have been doing something, even though I haven’t really been playing much the last couple nights here is pic of my “poker spreadsheet”. You can click on it to get a better view.  The only thing on it that you don’t get a good idea how it works is the graph, which is obviously empty at the moment.  I could have shown my limit 5 card draw one, but I don’t want to give out too much info .  I definitely suggest you make something like this if you don’t currently know your winrate (or losing rate) in a specific game.

Since there really isn’t a pokertracker for 5 card draw.  This is what I use for keeping my stats.  I have always had this for my 5 card draw game.  But I also made it recently for PL 5 card draw, NL HU SNGs (which looks a little different), and for Triple Draw (which you see now).  PLUS, I made some to get ready for when FullTilt adds their draw games as they have talked about and supposedly will have them sometime around the turn of the year.

I did this, also changed the look of my tables.  I used to play on a red background table on Pokerstars for 5 card draw.  It was something that I created.  Now, it is purple.  I just felt like staring at the red for an extended period of time was not easy on the eyes.  Purple is much better.  I also made a green one for TD, and blue for NLH.  All are cool colors (in terms of shade) and are supposedly easier on the eyes.  As with the table color, everything matches.  For instance, imagine the above table in a purple color scheme to match the tables I play on.

Plus, I spent some time working on some 5 card draw math.  I picked up more on some things that I was doing wrong than things that I didn’t know.  But I did learn a few things here and there.  I still have much to learn.

Will post again later tonight when done playing for the night.

Good evening everyone, I am here to report on the state of the goal to 60k.  The state is currently in poor condition.  We have seen tough times before, but the past two months have really put quite a big blemish to what was a fantastic first month.  As we stand here today, the goal to reach 60k is well behind pace.  With this date marking the halfway point for reaching this ever-elusive goal, we stand to make somewhere in the range of 40-45k as the end of 6 months comes upon us.

40-45k is not a bad number for 6 months of work.  Many can be pleased with this.  But not us!  No sir, we are here to reach a goal.  That goal is 60k.  Anything less than that is a failure!  We need to get our act together.  We need to call the bluffs.  We need to value bet when we are ahead.  We need to fold when we are behind.  And most importantly, we need to win!

Games will not always come to us.  That’s ok I say.  We can come to them!  If you are running bad in one game, who cares I say.  There are other games out there.  You lose to one opponent.  Don’t fret!  There are other opponents out there.

It just takes time.  Time.  Hmmm….time is money.  We can not waste our time anymore.  You have 3 months to go.  Though the last 3 months have really been exhausting at times.  We have got to keep our head up and keep trucking along.  If you have to take a day off, it is ok.  But know this, only take a day off if you feel you will comeback the next day in better shape to win.  Sometimes rest is spending our time wisely when you could have lost in your current condition.  Sometimes a penny saved is indeed a penny won.

In closing, though things look bleak right now.  I say it is worth a try.  Nay, I say it is worth a do.  It is not over.  We can do this!  No more negatives.  Keep positive.  Work hard.  Good things will come to us!  Now may the nuts be with you!

The first 3 months at a glance:

Started with: $2,004.28

Five Card draw:     July- $12,427

Aug- -$666.50

Sep- $1,530.50

NL HU 5cd SNG:  Jul- $1,252.50

Aug- $732

Sep- $105.50

Bonuses:  $4,000 + $100 x 3 +$1,000 = $5,300

Other games*: $227.02

Total: $22,912.30

* other games include MTTs, PL 5cd draw, and 2-7 TD.  I have created a new spreadsheet to start tracking my winrate at PL draw and 2-7 TD to be more accurate on this in the future.

The next 3 months:

Need to make: $37,087.70

Per month: $12,362.57

Per week: $2,852.90

Per day: $403.13

The above is if I played every day.  But with work, holidays, weddings, and more coming up; these numbers can be misleading.

Have you ever wanted to play in the Pokerstars Steps system to try and win your way to fortune and fame? Well, I am here to give you some expectations.

What are steps?

First let me talk about what “steps” are. Steps are a system of single table tournaments where the prize at stake at any given step is an entry to the next level. Depending on the step being played, other prizes will be given for coming in 2nd to 6th. More often than not though, coming in 2nd will give you the same result as coming in 1st. To give you an example of a step payout I took a snapshot of the payouts in a step 2:

As you can see with a step 2, you will at least break even just by coming in the top 4 out of 9 entrants.  The top 2 spots will get you to step 3, where you will have a chance to move on to step 4.

As of right now, PokerStars offers 6 different levels of steps.  Each of which you can buy into directly.  Step 6 is usually played out for a trip to a live tournament like the World Series of Poker in Vegas or the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure in the Bahamas.

It is a great way to take a “chance” at winning your way to an exclusive poker trip.

Starting from Scratch

If you don’t have the cash on hand to be able to buy in to step 6 directly, (which is $2,100) you can buy in at a level more on par with you bankroll.  The lowest buy in available is a step 1 for $7.50.

But the thing is, it is highly unlikely for someone to start from step 1 and work their way all the way to a step 6 win.  How unlikely?  That is a question I am trying to answer.

My Experience

I have played quite a number of steps over the past couple of years since their inception.  I have had stretches of running really well.  But on the flip side, I have also had stretches where I couldn’t win a hand.  Eventually though, I managed to win a step 6 in June ’09 for a trip to the WSOP in which I decided to take the cash value.

Note:  If the tournament you are playing for is out of the United States, taking the cash value is generally not an option.  So do your research if you are in it for the money.

Expectations

Now I am going to share with you some data that stems from the results of my long hours at the virtual felt.  These results are really not enough in terms of quantity to get a true adaptation of the variance at hand, but I thought I would share the numbers nonetheless.

I consider myself a good single-table tournament player that ran on par overall, but may have run well in certain situations.  But a ton of that running well, should be pretty well negated since the first 3 step 6s I played in, I ran KK into AA.  (man was I on tilt)

So without further ado……let me show you some numbers……

(if need be, click on the picture to get a better view)

From the chart above that I created in Excel I can conclude a ton of information.  It tells me what place I have come in and how often.  It also gives me specific information like my return on investment, average profit per game, etc.

Along with the above information I can determine some numbers on what to expect from scratch.  That is where this section comes in:

Here I can tell you on what to expect according to my play.  Your play will vary, but I think it is always good to get an idea.

On average, if I am starting from step 1, I can expect to pay $803 to get 1 step 6 ticket.  Not too bad if you consider that a step 6 actually costs over 2k.  These numbers still might be slightly incorrect because of the fact that I still have 5 step 5s waiting to be played at this point in time.  But I believe it to be a pretty good estimate and just for this blog’s purposes I entered in that I won 3 of the 5 unplayed step 5s and that $803 number was dropped to only $659.

I can also tell you it will take a total of about 162 games played to get myself a step 6 ticket.  (132 with 3 wins of the unplayed step 5 tix) This includes games at all levels.

Take your chance

So now that I have shared some of this information with you, I hope I can give you some more realistic expectations as to whether or not you should invest money into the Steps system.  My numbers are obviously going to be different than yours, but at least you have something to build on.  If you are going to invest your time and money into the steps, I definitely suggest you track your play with a spreadsheet similar to the one I created or some other program.

Now I am not saying that you can’t get lucky and win all the way starting with just a few step 1 tickets, I am just trying to paint a picture on how likely it is.

How likely is it?  I would be feel confident in saying, according to my numbers, that 1 in about 90-110 (1%) step 1 tickets will land me a step 6.  Then of course, I would have to win it!

Now if I told you that I was selling a lottery ticket for $7.50 in which you had a 1% chance to win over $10,000…..would you take it?

I haven’t had the time to play as much poker as I would like as of late.  But when I do, I have been consumed with attempting to win a seat to the World Series of Poker via the PokerStars steps.

What are steps?

If you aren’t familiar with the steps, they are basically a way to qualify for a live major poker tournament for as little as $7.50.  They are a group of single-table (9 players) tournaments that consist of 6 different levels.  Starting at step 1, in order to get to step 2 you would need to finish in the top 2 spots.  The same for each level until you get to step 6 where you play for a prize often around 10k+.

My attempt to get to step 6

I have played these steps in the past, and have made it to step 6 a couple of times starting from step 1.  Thanks to some pretty poor luck, nothing big materialized from those step 6′s.  So this year I was hoping to take another shot at the steps with hopes of making a 10k+ score.

I had been accumulating step 2′s over the year as I would use my frequent player points (FPP’s) to play in step 1′s.  You can actually play in step 1 for 500 fpp’s instead of $7.50. I ended up spending just over 50,000 fpp’s.  To make a long story short, I am left today with one step 6 ticket ready to be played.

If I could cash out the step 6, which unfortunately you can’t, I would be $2,100 richer (the cost to buy in directly into step 6).  I really wish I could just take the cash and reinvest half of it back into the steps.  But it is what it is, and I am stuck here pondering what to do.

To play or not to play…….

…..that is the question.  Should I hold it for a later date?  Should I try to get more step 6′s first?  I really just don’t know what I am going to do as of yet.  Something is telling me to wait it out thought instead of playing it now.

The plan is to just gradually play more and more steps until I am left with about 5+ step 6′s.  This way I would feel confident in my chances of winning at least once.  The pressure would really be relieved, I would think.

Confident to win

I am confident that I will eventually win a step 6.  I just don’t know when.  I am just trying to pave the way to see to it that I can be most likely to succeed.

How can I be so confident that I will even get to another step 6?

Well, this is when record keeping comes in handy.  I have an excel spreadsheet that I use that keeps tally of the number of steps that I play and what place I come in.  It is really great to know the “chances” of getting to step 6.  Though there is such a thing as variance, I feel like keeping stats does give me some idea as to my expected value of playing these steps.  Below is a picture of the “totals section” of the spreadsheet, with my stats:

I am happy that I was able to get a step 6.  But to be honest, I am disappointed at the same time.  I really ran wayyyy below expectation in the step 3′s.  I was really getting discouraged.  At one point, I was starting to doubt that I would ever get to a step 6.  According to previous step attempts, I normally come in 1st/2nd place in those around 27-31 percent.  This year I only came in the top two spots 15 percent of the time!

Somehow though, I was able to turn four step 4′s into a step 6.  I will let you know when, if any time soon, I decide to play it.

If you are interested in getting a similar spreadsheet, then I have made it available in the NoMeNot E-Store for free.

Back in October ’07 I set out to reach an online bankroll level of 10k. I knew I could do it, it was just a matter of learning that one dire lesson that seems to be vacant in my poker repertoire. That lesson is bankroll management.

I set this goal after losing over 2k in about a week’s time. At the time, it was the highest that my online bankroll had ever been. It took about 3 months to build, and in a blink of an eye it was gone.

So I deposited $100 with the intent to never go broke again. At the same time, I was set on trying to start building a bankroll and see if I can’t make some serious money playing online poker.

It has now been a year since the start of this goal. When I first started the goal, I honestly thought it would take anywhere from 8 to 16 months since I am not a high-volume player. However, I definitely thought I would be further along than I am now. Below is a graph of how my BR has fared since starting this goal of mine:

Starting at $100 I reached 1k in a little more than a month’s time. I was well on my way, then I hit one of many bad patches. I battled on though, and hit 2k by around the 3 month mark. I would eventually hit my high point of just over $5,000 in the 7th month.

Then I went on deadly tilt during and after my trip to Vegas in June. I was chasing losses, playing poorly, and running bad all while playing levels that would actually require me to have a bankroll of over 20k to truly withstand the swings. It was a combination that could be the end-all for many of poker players. Eventually I snapped out of it, and I started this blog here.

Since starting this blog, I have had my highs and lows, and again was still playing outside of my bankroll. Then I finally hit a point to where I was at a level where I had reached just 1 month into this goal, the 1k mark. I took a break, and have played a couple times since then, but overall just haven’t played hardly at all as my motivation is just not there.

It has been a really disappointing ride thus far, but I am not giving up. I will reach my goal, just not as soon as once hoped or personally expected.

Let me start this post off with a bang. My poker account on stars is now down to $1035.74. That is a loss of over 75% of my bankroll since my post dated on August 17th.

I sit here and honestly don’t know what to say. In the past I would write something smart and feel like it was a good excuse. This time, I am just not going to make an excuse. I am really disgusted with my poker playing right now that I have decided to take a small break.

I guess if there was to be a good week to take a break, this would be it. I just recently had my wisdom teeth pulled, and I have kind of been in and out of it. I really should of had them pulled years before, but they just never bothered me.

Back to the topic at hand, I feel as though I have a good grasp of many different poker variants. But obviously something is not connecting with me.

My Official Poker Ranking shows that I am now a profitable MTT player, though this was not necessarily the case as recently as 6-8 months ago. Though notice that my most profitable game is under the “other” category due to the limit 5 card draw MTTs I have played in the past. I also believe this to be the case due to the large field sizes in the NLH mtts and I really haven’t had what I consider a big “payday” to give me that great of an ROI.

My Sharkscope is much of the same, proving that I must be doing something right. In fact, the only game that I believe I have a -ROI in when it comes to my Sharkscope is the Turbo 180 man SNGs, though I have a really good ROI in the regulars.

One thing that I have to note about both my OPR and my Sharkscope is that it really isn’t enough games for me to make a solid evaluation of my game. I have never really been much of a high volume player. Yet, I do believe if anything, my SNG numbers are pretty close, and my MTT numbers are actually behind when it comes to my true potential.

So where is the problem? It must be cash games right? Well when it comes BB/100 hands in nearly every game I frequent, I am a profitable player.

The true problem is when I hit a skid in the road. I play WAY over my BR and this is where I compound errors to be left with a less than stellar amount in the Cashier. It is like an avalanche that has become out of control. One thing brings on the next, and then I look up and realize that I just don’t know what I am doing anymore.

Now I have had many stints of jumping up levels before my bankroll was truly ready. When I really get burned is when I jump up to chase losses or when I am tilting. When I have jumped up in the past due to my knowledge of the competition or the edge I feel I have in a game, I have done pretty well. In fact, that is where I made my last run from 2k to 4k in 5 card draw.

I really just wish I could jump up to a limit today where I could compete for what I consider to be good money. Playing at the lower levels seems to bore me. I like to play against the best and at the best levels. This is my competitive desire coming out.

Am I the only one to get in a rut like this? No. In fact, it seems recently I have seen alot of “pros” and highly talented players complaining about being on a losing streak, some longer than others. It almost kind of worries me, because if they can’t make a profit, then how can I expect to? Is there really any type of a future in poker for me? Could there ever be a day where the whole playing field is so leveled out that nearly no one will be able to make an income from just playing poker?

Those are questions I can not answer, nor should I even attempt to at this point. But what I can do is answer the the question that I titled this post with. What is missing? What is holding me back?

After some long hard looks at my game (though with plenty of mistakes) I have come to the conclusion that there really isn’t much missing in my game for me to have not already reached my goal to 10k by now…..Instead it is too much of something……EGO!

I need a reality check and realize that I am only as good of a player as by how much money I make at this game. Everything starts with me, and I have to fight myself just to get to the next level. Poker really is a humbling, self-evaluating game that seems to always throw you a curveball when you are looking dead red fastball.

For the next couple of days, I plan to still keep evaluating my game and continue to brush up via videos and books. I will come back a better player and I am looking forward to it.