Another loss in the books.  I am really getting upset/worried.

I used to say that the cards don’t matter that much in 5 card draw.  I still think that to be true for the most part.  But the thing is, they do matter when you play against specific players.  When you get to showdown a ton, you better show up with a better hand.  Well the better hand always seems to be on the wrong side of the table for me lately.

I feel like this is almost a test.  It is really making me flip out inside.

If I am going to do this full-time one day, this is something I need to be able to handle.  The downs.  Though this is one of the worst downswings I have ever been on at the limit 5 card draw tables, I need to just sit back and take a deep breath.

Is it ego that is getting in the way?  Maybe it is.  I like to think of myself as one of the better 5 card draw players on PokerStars.  When I lose heads-up against someone who I feel should not beat me in the long run and then they either do something or say something to basically just rub it in my face, it pisses me off.  I’m not going to lie.

It is basically like throwing salt on the wound.  I rarely do things or say things in the chatbox to undercut a player.  I am not one to do that.  But lately I fine myself lowering myself to their level.  I need to stop.  Take it for however long this bad spell lasts, and enjoy it when they finally stop running unbelievably.

Yes, I had a good July.  But I really didn’t outdraw people to the affect that I am getting outdrawn these days.  Most of my winning last month came from getting my cards in good and them holding up.  In fact, July was one of my better months ever.  I just normally don’t put in that many hours.  Since I put in more hours, I made more money.  But according to my spreadsheet it was not my best month, in terms of hourly rate.  But one thing is for sure, this has been the worst month for me at the 5 card draw tables I have ever seen.  You name the bad beat, it has happened to me.

It is like a disease too.  Today I played the Sunday Million.  I finished somewhere below 2000th of the 8000+ players by getting absolutely no cards whatsoever.  The finish was good enough for me to bubble and one hand away from cashing.  So, to a point, it is a bright spot that I was able to survive that long without any hands.

I was so curious to see just how bad my cards were and see if there was anything I could have done that I uploaded my hand history to PokerXFactor’s hand history replayer just to see what my PUFF was.  For those that are not familiar with what PUFF is, it stands for Preflop Unadjusted Fortune Factor.  It basically assesses the value of the hands dealt to you before the flop and give you a scale of 0 to 100, 100 being lucky.  0 being absolutely card dead.  Average is 50.  Well, to make a long story short, my PUFF was 0.

If there was such a thing as PUFF for the 5 card draw tables, this month would probably put me at 20.  I don’t say 0, only because when I do get a big hand like a full house, I lose to another full house or 4 of a kind.  So, it is pretty much a double-whammy there.  Sigh.

I am really sorry to the readers that are having to endure my bad beat stories, but it is what it is.  I am just detailing how things are going while I try to reach this goal to 60k.  Though I am still ahead of pace (not by much), my chances are not looking good at the moment.  I am putting so much pressure on myself to reach this goal that it is just magnifying this downturn.

I probably should take a break, I don’t know.  With this goal in place, I have to put in the hours.  It is a double-edged sword with no clear path to take.

This goal to 60k represents so much more to me than just making money.  It represents my being able to play this game full-time.  Leave the workforce that I dread and do something I want to do.  This is a test.  This will happen if I ever make the leap.  I need to not look at a bad week, or even a bad month.  I need to look at things as they happen over the course of the year.  It is a lesson that I keep telling myself, but admittedly it’s hard to see through the glass at the moment.

Oh, and my night?  I lost $1,011.

Running total to 60k: $16,265.18

Pace to 60k: 15k even.

Well, my run good is officially over now.  If you want to read about how I was killing it for a while, cycle back to posts from the first half of July.  After all I did win over 10k in a couple weeks time.  If you want to read about my failing then this post is for you!

Nothing is going right for me now.  As good as I was running before, I am running just as bad.  I didn’t play last night, but not by choice rather because no one would play.  To a point that is running bad, no competition.  The first couple of weeks in July saw a ton more action than I am used to at the 10/20 and 15/30 5 card draw level.  I wish we could have a game going there all the time.

Tonight finally I got a game going at 10/20.  LOL!  Brutal.  I can not tell you how bad the cards were.  The crazy thing is, is if I am playing against what I consider tough competition, the cards aren’t as important.  I mean don’t get me wrong the cards always play an integral part no matter who you play.  But when you are playing against a bunch of passive calling stations, you have to tighten up and showdown some hands.

Well, those hands never came for me.  Then once in a blue moon, I would get a decent holding, only for it to be 2nd best or outdrawn.  Sigh.

Now I have had moments like this before, and I knew it would eventually come (how many times I do not know) during my quest to 60k.  I just hope it doesn’t stick around long.  Sometimes these ruts will just visit for a day to a week, but I have had them over the course of a month before.  It is never fun.

My running total has dipped below 10k as I am now at $9,976.13.  Worried? No.  Aggravated? A little.

See, I sit and wait for what feels like forever just to get a game going at the 5 card draw tables.  When the players finally sit down, I need to make the best of what is expected to be a short time.  When I am not getting at least a normal run of cards, it is very frustrating and you start to go out of your way to try and make things happen…..and when you are playing certain types of players, this is a big no no.

The ever increasing pace to 60k is getting closer and closer to my running amount as the pace now sits at $7,174.  So I am now about $2,800 ahead of pace.  I am still pleased with this amount, but I was $5,800 ahead of pace just short while ago.

So tomorrow, I am taking my mind off of poker, to “recharge”.  I am heading up to National Stadium in Washington, DC tomorrow to watch The Dave Matthews Band in concert.  It will be a good little break to take.  Hopefully the cards will have changed by time I hit the tables again later this weekend.

Until then……I will leave you with a quote from one of DMB’s songs that I enjoy when things aren’t looking so good:

(From Dancing Nancies)

Dark clouds may hang on me sometimes
But I’ll work it out
And then I
Look up at the sky
My mouth is open wide lick and taste
What’s the use in worrying, what’s the use in hurrying
Turn turn we almost become dizzy

Well, it has been a week now since PokerStars ran out their last satellite to the World Series of Poker.  Plenty of money spent, and tons of heartbreak later; I sit here today dealing with the realization that I am not going to the 2010 WSOP.

I ended up spending nearly enough in these satellites that I could have just bought into the tournament myself, which has a $10,000 entry fee.  I am so frustrated with tournament poker right now, I don’t know where to begin.

Nothing seems to be going right for me right now.  I know I might have complained about a bad beat or two in the past.  I am really much better today at realizing it is a part of this sick game we call poker, but this is just cruel. 

I had quite a few good shots to win a seat, one of which I already posted about.  But to spare my readers (at the time) the agonies of other bad beat stories I refrained from posting others.

I made it heads-up where there was one seat up for grabs with a 2:1 chip lead just to see it thrown out the window on what was an 80 percent favorite on the river.  I made it 4 handed with 2 seats up for grabs where I got all my chips in as a dominating favorite (A9 vs A3) only to lose that one.  Had I won that hand, I would have had a huge chiplead and we would have been 3 handed where 2 seats were up for grabs.  I came in 4th-9th WAY too much.  Often times should I have won the hand I was knocked out in, I would have been chipleader.  I am not going to sit here and say that I was huge favorite in every instance, but I would say about 60 percent of these hands it was a coinflip.  30 percent of the time I was a huge favorite that didn’t come through.  Then there was also the 10 percent of the time where I got my money in bad.

I even have the stats to back it up.  Looking over my tracking software, Holdem Manager, it shows I am running WAY below expectation.  My cEV in all-ins is at just below +2 million.  Where as my actual is at -4 million.  A difference of 6 million!

So for those that I just lost in translation, I have been extremely unlucky!

Just looking at it from a certain perspective.  I think I should have won at least one seat better than 90% of the time.  I should have won two seats about 65% of the time.  I should have won three seats about 40% of the time.  I can only imagine how many I could have won should I actually had ran good and not just at par with expected value!  I am not just floating random numbers out there either.   

I get a sick feeling just writing this post.  I feel as though I got mugged out in the street and the theif took at the minimum $24,000 dollars from me. 

My tournament game feels so lost right now, I feel like a complete newbie.  Nothing I do seems to work.  It is really making me question if I am doing things right or wrong.  I have reached a low point in my tournament confidence that is just hard to shake off. 

But I got to keep on keeping on I guess. 

Oh and by the way, this whole mess of not winning a WSOP seat has me motivated to climb out of the hole I have dug myself into in a fashion that I have never attempted before.  More on that in the next couple of days.

I have been slaving away at trying to win a seat to the WSOP.  But things have not looked too good at all until today.

I was playing the 33r triple turbo they offer on PokerStars.  I built a pretty nice chiplead from the start and didn’t look back.  I had a little hiccup as we approached the final 2 tables.  But that was quickly washed away as I won a few pots, one right after the other.

Next thing I knew, I was heads up with a slightly better than 2:1 chip lead.  One of the first hands heads up, I get dealt K7o.  This hand may not seem like much, but it was plenty for me to shove about a 10bb effective stack headsup.  I get called by QJ.  The board came out:

T 6 7   GREAT!

8 on the turn…..  HOLD!

and….

Q! on the ****ing river!!

He took the chiplead in the hand, and I was never able to recoup as we were trading small blows here and there until I made a pretty speculative call in which I was about a 40% underdog for my tourney life.

Well….uh, this is not one of those 40% time that I come out on top.

That Queen on the river cost me 12 thousand dollars!  I am sooooo sick right now!  Ugh.

But come tomorrow, hopefully the pain will be relieved as I have to keep trying to win a WSOP seat, or two.

Until then……..

What’s up everyone.  It’s been a while.  I haven’t had too much to post about lately.  But I just wanted to stop by and say hi.

2010 thus far has not been so good poker-wise.  I haven’t logged in nearly enough hours and when I have, things have definitely been running below expectation.  I have taken a couple weeks off here and there to do some deep mathematical analysis type stuff.  Stuff that will only make me become a better player in the future.  I plan to share some stuff that I have come across here on my site some day soon.

I am not really too worried about still reaching my goals for 2010.  But admittedly, things are not looking too good as of now.

I have also done some “soul searching” lately.  lol, I guess a losing streak can do that to you.  Again, maybe I will post some things when it comes to that some day as well.  But for now, I just wanted to stop and say “hi”.

Poker is a love-hate relationship. I just lost over $700 playing 5 card draw. Yes, I made a couple of bad plays here and there. But 95% of the time I put money in the pot, there was nothing I could do. The cards just weren’t cooperating. When I was ahead, I got drawn out on. When I had a huge hand, someone had a bigger hand….and so on.

I really hate playing when it seems nothing at all goes right. So I am done for the next few hours, until I can get my head straight again.

I am still up $300 for the month of October. Honestly though, I don’t know how the way I have been running the past week.

I am looking forward to when the tables are turned and everything goes right. Those are the most fun days playing poker. You feel invincible and the bankroll grows at a fast pace.