As I just got “hit n run” again.  I realized that I will probably post that term frequently now that I am talking more in depth about each session I have due to my 60k in 6 months goal.  I wanted to take the time to talk about what a “hit n run” is as many readers may not know.

Often times, there will be no 5 card draw game going.  So I will sit and wait for opponents.  Sometimes that wait lasts a while.  But every so once in a while someone will sit down.  I sit with my normal $600 at 15/30 and this someone joins with $200. 

Right off the bat I suspect the player to be average at best.  It is just a matter of whether he or she is too passive or too aggressive.  I will usually have a good idea within 20 hands or so. 

However, with these “hit n runners”, I may never see 20 hands.  They will sit with $200, win a quick $150 in litterally 5-10 hands and get up.  Hence, the term “hit n run”……they hit me for a quick little bit of money and run for the hills to go roll around in my money.

I have had players tell me how much they hate hit-n-runners.  Me on the other hand, welcome them with open arms.

Why do they do it?  It is usually because they are scared.  They get up a couple bucks and they get scared that they will lose it back.  Which is usually what they would do, so I am not going to complain. 

Other times though, they sit down with their $200 and lose it in a matter of less than 5 minutes.  It all evens out over time, and more often than not they are really giving and running instead of hitting and running. 

But one thing these hit-n-runners don’t realize is that one aspect of a Heads-up game is momentum.  If you have the momentum, why get up?  I am almost glad that these guys get up with only a little fraction of what I would have been willing to play for.  They don’t realize that they had something good going.  Then they come back a couple days later, looking to hit-n-run once again, but this time I have notes on this player and already have somewhat of an idea of how they play.  They usually, not always, just lose it all back and then some.

See, each session….whether it is 2 minutes long or 2 hours long, is all the same.  Poker IS one long session.  If someone wants to sit and try to win a quick hundred, go ahead.  But you better win!

Oh and by the way……

as I was writing this post, a suspected hit-n-runner just sat and lost $197.50 to me and left.

Have you ever wanted to play in the Pokerstars Steps system to try and win your way to fortune and fame? Well, I am here to give you some expectations.

What are steps?

First let me talk about what “steps” are. Steps are a system of single table tournaments where the prize at stake at any given step is an entry to the next level. Depending on the step being played, other prizes will be given for coming in 2nd to 6th. More often than not though, coming in 2nd will give you the same result as coming in 1st. To give you an example of a step payout I took a snapshot of the payouts in a step 2:

As you can see with a step 2, you will at least break even just by coming in the top 4 out of 9 entrants.  The top 2 spots will get you to step 3, where you will have a chance to move on to step 4.

As of right now, PokerStars offers 6 different levels of steps.  Each of which you can buy into directly.  Step 6 is usually played out for a trip to a live tournament like the World Series of Poker in Vegas or the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure in the Bahamas.

It is a great way to take a “chance” at winning your way to an exclusive poker trip.

Starting from Scratch

If you don’t have the cash on hand to be able to buy in to step 6 directly, (which is $2,100) you can buy in at a level more on par with you bankroll.  The lowest buy in available is a step 1 for $7.50.

But the thing is, it is highly unlikely for someone to start from step 1 and work their way all the way to a step 6 win.  How unlikely?  That is a question I am trying to answer.

My Experience

I have played quite a number of steps over the past couple of years since their inception.  I have had stretches of running really well.  But on the flip side, I have also had stretches where I couldn’t win a hand.  Eventually though, I managed to win a step 6 in June ’09 for a trip to the WSOP in which I decided to take the cash value.

Note:  If the tournament you are playing for is out of the United States, taking the cash value is generally not an option.  So do your research if you are in it for the money.

Expectations

Now I am going to share with you some data that stems from the results of my long hours at the virtual felt.  These results are really not enough in terms of quantity to get a true adaptation of the variance at hand, but I thought I would share the numbers nonetheless.

I consider myself a good single-table tournament player that ran on par overall, but may have run well in certain situations.  But a ton of that running well, should be pretty well negated since the first 3 step 6s I played in, I ran KK into AA.  (man was I on tilt)

So without further ado……let me show you some numbers……

(if need be, click on the picture to get a better view)

From the chart above that I created in Excel I can conclude a ton of information.  It tells me what place I have come in and how often.  It also gives me specific information like my return on investment, average profit per game, etc.

Along with the above information I can determine some numbers on what to expect from scratch.  That is where this section comes in:

Here I can tell you on what to expect according to my play.  Your play will vary, but I think it is always good to get an idea.

On average, if I am starting from step 1, I can expect to pay $803 to get 1 step 6 ticket.  Not too bad if you consider that a step 6 actually costs over 2k.  These numbers still might be slightly incorrect because of the fact that I still have 5 step 5s waiting to be played at this point in time.  But I believe it to be a pretty good estimate and just for this blog’s purposes I entered in that I won 3 of the 5 unplayed step 5s and that $803 number was dropped to only $659.

I can also tell you it will take a total of about 162 games played to get myself a step 6 ticket.  (132 with 3 wins of the unplayed step 5 tix) This includes games at all levels.

Take your chance

So now that I have shared some of this information with you, I hope I can give you some more realistic expectations as to whether or not you should invest money into the Steps system.  My numbers are obviously going to be different than yours, but at least you have something to build on.  If you are going to invest your time and money into the steps, I definitely suggest you track your play with a spreadsheet similar to the one I created or some other program.

Now I am not saying that you can’t get lucky and win all the way starting with just a few step 1 tickets, I am just trying to paint a picture on how likely it is.

How likely is it?  I would be feel confident in saying, according to my numbers, that 1 in about 90-110 (1%) step 1 tickets will land me a step 6.  Then of course, I would have to win it!

Now if I told you that I was selling a lottery ticket for $7.50 in which you had a 1% chance to win over $10,000…..would you take it?

The following article was orginally published by BlindStraddle online poker e-magazine in October ’08. Unfortunately, Blindstraddle.com has discontinued its publication.

When I am thinking about poker, I am often finding myself more consumed with game theory situations. One theory I have often heard and read in the past is that as one’s stack grows in a tournament, each individual chip is worth less.

Because of this thinking, it is said that one shouldn’t be taking big risks to gather chips since the chips won won’t be worth as much as the chips lost. So I decided to look into it for myself and hopefully I could figure out a proper strategy to take in a tournament.

Browsing through the lobbies on Pokerstars, I first stumbled across a $6.50 six person Sit-N-Go where the starting stack is 1500. So it is only obvious that the starting stack of 1500 is worth six dollars (minus the 50 cents fee). Each person paid for that stack. It is theirs and everyone is playing to not only keep that stack, but increase it. At the beginning of the tournament each chip is worth six dollars divided by 1500, or 0.004 cents.

To win, one would need to gather all the chips in play. With six players starting with 1500 chips, there are a total of 9000 chips in play. If someone is lucky enough to get all 9000 chips, they will be rewarded first place money. In this case, with the standard two person pay out schedule, first place rewards $23.40. This means that each chip in a 9000 stack is worth 0.0026 cents ($23.40 divided by 9000).

So to recap, the chips in a 1500 stack are worth 0.004 cents while the chips in a 9000 stack are worth 0.0026 cents. That is a 35 percent decrease in chip value!

Growing more intrigued I next looked at a $5.50 Heads-Up Sit-N-Go. The five dollars buys 1500 chips, and a 3000 stack wins you ten dollars. Five dollars divided by 1500 is equal to ten dollars divided by 3000. So plainly the value of chips didn’t change. So I guess it can’t always be true.

So what is the difference? How come the first example showed this theory to be true, but the second did not? The only thing I could think of is the number of spots being paid.

So I went back to the six person sit-n-go, but changed it to a winner-take-all format. In this case, the value of the chips didn’t change either because the same 9000 chips it takes to win it all would win the whole prize pool.

“When does this “change” actually take place then?” I asked myself.

Looking at the six person sit-n-go, if there are two players playing for the final two spots, one person will get paid first place money and the other will get second place money. It doesn’t matter how big their stacks are, each chip is still worth the same. So this change of each chip’s value doesn’t actually occur until there is money taken out of the prize pool.

So I decided to test this theory further by looking at a multi-table tournament, specifically a $4 180 man tournament where the top 18 places are paid and the average starting stack is again 1500. With 180 people putting up 4 dollars, there is 720 dollars in the prize pool. If we are down to 18 people the average stack will be 15000. If everyone has the same size stack, then everyone’s stack will be worth 1/18th of the prize pool. In this case that would be 40 dollars.

If I still have this same 15000 stack, how would changing the other chip stack sizes change the value of my chip stack? To go with extremes, as I often do to figure out problems, I looked at a situation where I have 15000, 16 players each have a one-chip stack, and the last player has the rest of the chips in play (254984).

Well it would be a pretty good estimate that my 15000 chip stack really shouldn’t be worth 40 dollars any more, instead it should be closer to second place money, since I should be able fold my way to second place. Second place in this instance is worth 144 dollars, making each chip in my stack worth more than otherwise noted. In this case, it would not be warranted to put my chip stack at risk against the chip leader.

To look at it deeper, with the same situation, if I have AA dealt to me. I would be inclined to fold to a shove from the chip leader. Crazy huh? Well what would doubling up really do at this point? It would give me a stack of 30000, which is still not even near the stack I would need to take down the whole tournament, 270000. Is it worth risking 144 dollars to fade a bad beat? First place money is only worth 72 dollars more ($216), in which I would still have plenty of work to do to take it all down.

After thinking about it, I felt that this was starting to sound similar to independent chip modeling, or ICM. ICM is an extremely powerful mathematical model that is essential for any sit-n-go player’s success. I guess I could just stop with this research I am doing and be content with looking over SNG Wizard or SNG Power Tools, both programs address ICM and I highly recommend them for any sit-n-go competitor.

ICM really takes into effect the other chip stacks at the table to determine the best course of action for a player in a sit-n-go. This is also what I would need to do in the aforementioned 180-man tournament. OK good, I determined that I need to pay more attention to the other stack sizes, move on.

“Ahh, but wait” I said to myself. “How can one possibly take into effect every player’s chip stack in a big tournament that still has over 100 tables left though? How can I use this information to help me?”

I did already see that a form of ICM is still relevant to multi-table tournaments with the experiment I did with the 180-man tournament. But realistically, when is that exact type of situation ever going to come up? I needed something that was more relevant to an everyday situation.

I have often wondered when approaching a bubble of a multi-table tournament if I should just sit back and try to cash, or still play for first. I always hear that in a multi-table tournament I have to play for first. After all that is where all the money is.

Still determined, I thought about three major situations that I am always plagued or fortunate with when approaching the bubble of a big tournament:

1. I have a tiny stack, at which point I am just hoping to cash.
2. I have a huge stack, where I feel I should keep the pressure on the shorter stacks.
3. I have a medium stack, where it’s not concrete on what strategy I should employ.

Let me address each situation so that I can be better prepared when it does come up in the future. I have a tiny stack, what should I do? This is when it starts to become pertinent to use a free resource that every player is blessed with, the tournament lobby.

Well, the critics will say I should still play for first. But what if I have just one chip? Again, looking at an extreme situation to try and get an answer. I can then make that 1 chip worth what last place pays compared to 1/1500 of my buy in or whatever the starting stack was. If I know folding what could be a winner will net me money because someone else will likely bust in this hand, then it would become the best play to fold in the long run.

The first situation was probably the easiest. When I have a huge stack though, it starts to get a little tougher. Should I continue to try and chip up or sit back and preserve my stack? Outside of the table dynamics, and what the table is letting me get away with, I should also be paying attention to the stacks at the other tables. Again looking at the tournament lobby, I need to determine a couple things.

Do I need to continue to apply pressure to keep up with the other chip leaders? In this case, I might want to continue to bully the table if it means I can separate myself from the middle of the pack and inch closer to the other chip leaders. Am I part of a group of players that is way ahead of the pack or personally just way ahead of everyone else? In which case I can sit back and not risk too many chips since there is still a ton of poker to be played. Both questions should be asked and can be answered fairly quickly just by glancing over the stacks in the tournament lobby. By finding out these answers, it will let me know of what degree of risks I should be taking at a given point in the tournament.

Where it really gets tricky is when I start to get closer to my third situation, I have a medium stack. There has to be a break-even point from the first situation and the last. What stack size correlates to what strategy? Should I try and cash first or continue to have the goal of playing for first? This is when the other chip stacks play the biggest part and become most important to look at it from both the big stack and tiny stack perspectives.

If there is a surplus of short stacks and I could conceivably move up quite a few pay scales I might be more inclined to pass on some risky plays to a certain degree. If there really are not that many short stacks, and I am stuck in the middle, I might be leaning to taking some risks to try and chip up. What about the chip leaders? Will a double-up get me that much closer to a stack that will allow me to move into the big stack’s frame of mind, or will it keep me in the middle pack? Depending on the answer, I can also make a determination on how much I should be willing gamble.

What if I might be multi-tabling online and don’t have the time to study every stack by looking over the tournament lobby? Well, I have read the Harrington on Hold’em series, which I highly recommend, where he introduces a couple of concepts to help determine what frame of mind one should have in a specific situation according to their chip stack. One is Magriel’s “M” which to quote from the book is “the ratio of your stack to the current total of blinds and antes.” The other is a ratio of one’s stack to the average stack, or Harrington’s “Q”.

Well, I would also like to introduce a new online-friendly concept. I guess I will call it NoMeNot’s “N”. This is basically just the median stack and how one’s stack compares to it. It should be a good gauge as to where one’s stack compares to the smaller stacks and the bigger stacks. Let me see how this can be applied.

If my stack is 1000 and the median stack is 3000, then my N is .33. With a stack like this I might be more inclined to try and cash first before the bubble and after the bubble, I would be inclined to try and double up unless there is a significant pay jump in the near future.

If my stack is 3000 and the median stack is 3000, then my N is 1. With a similar type stack, I would be caught right in the middle with my thought process just as before in my third situation where I had a middle stack.

Lastly, if my stack is at 9000 and the median stack is 3000, then my N will be 3. In this case, I will not feel too much pressure to gamble. But I will still keep the pressure on high as long as the table is letting me get away with it.

So now what have I learned from just inquiring about the true value of chips in a tournament?

1. ICM is not just for sit-n-go’s as it can be applied to multi-table tournaments as well.
2. It is important to know where my chip stack compares to the others chips stacks, and not just at my table.
3. A good way to gauge my chip stacks worth is by finding the median stack, if there are 100 people left, the median stack would be the       player in 50th place.

Whew, done with that theory. On to the next one I guess. That is the outlook I have when I am trying to learn about the game. I definitely suggest others try and do the same. If I can’t think of an answer right off the bat, I like to look at the extremes and see if I can’t find a middle ground. I did just that a couple of times here. It is a great way to come up with a new thought process while learning about what might be the best play to make in a certain situation.

Until next time, what’s your N?