After a couple more days off, just working on this site and trying to catch up at work, (yes I do have a daytime job, though I would like to change that one day) I decided to go back to the usual tournaments. I just STILL can not catch a break.

The mathematical definition of variance from Wikipedia:

In probability theory and statistics, the variance of a random variable, probability distribution, or sample is one measure of statistical dispersion, averaging the squared distance of its possible values from the expected value (mean). Whereas the mean is a way to describe the location of a distribution, the variance is a way to capture its scale or degree of being spread out. The unit of variance is the square of the unit of the original variable. The positive square root of the variance, called the standard deviation, has the same units as the original variable and can be easier to interpret for this reason.

In poker Lehman’s terms, it is the luck factor that could make one win or lose more than expected over a specific sample size (ex: 20 tournaments) as compared to what the expected Return on Investment (ROI) from a given game is for that player.

To say the least, I am on the wrong end of variance when it comes to tournaments since before my break and again today. I could sit here and give you a laundry list of what I am talking about, but I don’t want to go there. This is not meant to be a “bad beat” blog. I just have recently really questioned why I spend all the time I do thinking about the game and if this time would be better served thinking about something else. Especially when some clueless guy, probably playing poker for the first time, beats me out of another pot on some crazy luck.

I have sat here and erased at least 3 paragraphs as I decide which direction to take this blog post. I really am at a loss for words. I currently just don’t play enough to let these beats not bother me. If I could play more games at a time, and be more encouraged to do so, then maybe the skill factor will overturn the bad luck at the tables.

After all, the saying is “anyone one can win any given night, but the better players will win over the course of a month, a year or 10 years.”

I really need to take a more objective view with my poker playing. I need to be less results-oriented and be happy when I get my money in ahead. I have been listening to some cash plays recently and I really admire the way Bart Hanson is able to take the point of view he does and be completely deterred from being results-oriented. That outlook is one I am trying to reach, and I hope that I can get there one day.

It is just another thing to add to the “need to learn” list before I can become the player I strive to be.

Until next time, I hope you are running better than me.