Well, it has been a week now since PokerStars ran out their last satellite to the World Series of Poker.  Plenty of money spent, and tons of heartbreak later; I sit here today dealing with the realization that I am not going to the 2010 WSOP.

I ended up spending nearly enough in these satellites that I could have just bought into the tournament myself, which has a $10,000 entry fee.  I am so frustrated with tournament poker right now, I don’t know where to begin.

Nothing seems to be going right for me right now.  I know I might have complained about a bad beat or two in the past.  I am really much better today at realizing it is a part of this sick game we call poker, but this is just cruel. 

I had quite a few good shots to win a seat, one of which I already posted about.  But to spare my readers (at the time) the agonies of other bad beat stories I refrained from posting others.

I made it heads-up where there was one seat up for grabs with a 2:1 chip lead just to see it thrown out the window on what was an 80 percent favorite on the river.  I made it 4 handed with 2 seats up for grabs where I got all my chips in as a dominating favorite (A9 vs A3) only to lose that one.  Had I won that hand, I would have had a huge chiplead and we would have been 3 handed where 2 seats were up for grabs.  I came in 4th-9th WAY too much.  Often times should I have won the hand I was knocked out in, I would have been chipleader.  I am not going to sit here and say that I was huge favorite in every instance, but I would say about 60 percent of these hands it was a coinflip.  30 percent of the time I was a huge favorite that didn’t come through.  Then there was also the 10 percent of the time where I got my money in bad.

I even have the stats to back it up.  Looking over my tracking software, Holdem Manager, it shows I am running WAY below expectation.  My cEV in all-ins is at just below +2 million.  Where as my actual is at -4 million.  A difference of 6 million!

So for those that I just lost in translation, I have been extremely unlucky!

Just looking at it from a certain perspective.  I think I should have won at least one seat better than 90% of the time.  I should have won two seats about 65% of the time.  I should have won three seats about 40% of the time.  I can only imagine how many I could have won should I actually had ran good and not just at par with expected value!  I am not just floating random numbers out there either.   

I get a sick feeling just writing this post.  I feel as though I got mugged out in the street and the theif took at the minimum $24,000 dollars from me. 

My tournament game feels so lost right now, I feel like a complete newbie.  Nothing I do seems to work.  It is really making me question if I am doing things right or wrong.  I have reached a low point in my tournament confidence that is just hard to shake off. 

But I got to keep on keeping on I guess. 

Oh and by the way, this whole mess of not winning a WSOP seat has me motivated to climb out of the hole I have dug myself into in a fashion that I have never attempted before.  More on that in the next couple of days.